The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released an update to its first quarter Energy Survey on Apr. 23, following recent changes in the global oil market. The update is based on responses from 120 energy executives who answered six questions and provided comments about the current situation.
The survey aims to capture industry expectations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. oil production, employment trends, and shipping costs after recent geopolitical events. The findings reflect how companies in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District are responding to ongoing uncertainty in international energy markets.
According to the survey, 39 percent of executives expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal by August 2026. Another 26 percent anticipate normalization by November 2026, while 20 percent expect an earlier recovery by May. Fourteen percent foresee a longer delay beyond November. Most respondents—48 percent—said it is “very likely” that future geopolitical events will disrupt traffic again within five years; another 38 percent consider it “somewhat likely,” while only 14 percent see further disruptions as “unlikely.” When asked about Persian Gulf production returning after shut-ins, nearly two-thirds believe at least ninety percent will eventually be restored.
Regarding U.S. oil production in response to conflict involving Iran, seventy percent of executives expect an increase in output for 2026; most predict a modest rise between zero and a quarter million barrels per day (mb/d). Expectations for growth continue into the following year: more than three-quarters anticipate increased U.S. production in 2027 as well.
Employment projections among surveyed firms remain steady for now—59 percent said they do not expect staffing levels at their companies to change between December 2025 and December 2026, though over a quarter forecast slight increases during that period.
Most executives also foresee higher shipping costs from the Persian Gulf once military conflict ends; thirty-six percent estimate added expenses between $2 and $4 per barrel.
Data were collected from April 15–20 among firms headquartered primarily in Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana but with many operating nationally or globally.
